IV.       Child Mortality

One of the overarching goals of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is to reduce infant and under-five mortality. Specifically, the MDGs call for the reduction of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Monitoring progress towards this goal is an important but difficult objective.

Mortality rates presented in this chapter are calculated from information collected in the birth histories of the Women’s Questionnaires. All interviewed women were asked whether they had ever given birth, and if yes, they were asked to report the number of sons and daughters who live with them, the number who live elsewhere, and the number who have died. In addition, they were asked to provide a detailed birth history of live births of children in chronological order starting with the firstborn. Women were asked whether births were single or multiple, the sex of the children, the date of birth (month and year), and survival status. Further, for children still alive, they were asked the current age of the child and, if not alive, the age at death.

Childhood mortality rates are expressed by conventional age categories and are defined as follows:

•             Neonatal mortality (NN): probability of dying within the first month of life

•             Post-neonatal mortality (PNN): difference between infant and neonatal mortality rates

•             Infant mortality (1q0): probability of dying between birth and the first birthday

•             Child mortality (4q1): probability of dying between the first and the fifth birthdays

•             Under-five mortality (5q0): the probability of dying between birth and the fifth birthday

Rates are expressed as deaths per 1,000 live births, except in the case of child mortality, which is expressed as deaths per 1,000 children surviving to age one, and post-neonatal mortality, which is the difference between infant and neonatal mortality rates.

Table CM.1: Early childhood mortality rates

Neonatal, post-neonatal, Infant, child and under-five mortality rates for five year periods preceding the survey, Kyrgyzstan, 2014

 

Neonatal mortality rate1

Post-neonatal mortality rate2, a

Infant mortality rate3

Child mortality rate4

Under-five mortality rate5

Years preceding the survey

       

0-4

17

7

24

6

29

5-9

16

9

25

6

31

10-14

18

17

35

6

40

1 MICS indicator 1.1 - Neonatal mortality rate

2 MICS indicator 1.3 - Post-neonatal mortality rate

3 MICS indicator 1.2; MDG indicator 4.2 - Infant mortality rate

4 MICS indicator 1.4 - Child mortality rate

5 MICS indicator 1.5; MDG indicator 4.1 - Under-five mortality rate

a Post-neonatal mortality rates are computed as the difference between the infant and neonatal mortality rates

Table CM.1 and Figure CM.1 present neonatal, post-neonatal, infant, child, and under-five mortality rates for the three most recent five-year periods before the survey. Neonatal mortality in the most recent 5-year period is estimated at 17 per 1,000 live births, while the post-neonatal mortality rate is estimated at 7 per 1,000 live births.

Figure CM.1: Early childhood mortality rates, Kyrgyzstan, 2014

The infant mortality rate in the five years preceding the survey is 24 per 1,000 live births and under-five mortality is 29 deaths per 1,000 live births for the same period, indicating that majority (83 percent) of under-five deaths are infant deaths.

Table CM.2: Early childhood mortality rates by socioeconomic characteristics

Neonatal, post-neonatal, Infant, child and under-five mortality rates for the five year period preceding the survey, by socioeconomic characteristics, Kyrgyzstan, 2014

 

Neonatal mortality rate1

Post-neonatal mortality rate2, a

Infant mortality rate3

Child mortality rate4

Under-five mortality rate5

           

Total

17

7

24

6

29

           

Region

         

Batken

(21)

(9)

(30)

(2)

(32)

Djalal-Abad

16

3

20

5

24

Issyk-Kul

(26)

(14)

(40)

(4)

(43)

Naryn

(10)

(17)

(27)

(7)

(34)

Osh Oblast

25

9

34

(16)

(49)

Talas

14

3

17

1

18

Chui

(8)

(8)

(16)

(2)

(18)

Bishkek City

(14)

(0)

(14)

(*)

(*)

Osh City

(9)

(9)

(17)

(*)

(*)

Area

         

Urban

13

3

17

4

20

Rural

18

9

27

7

33

Mother's education

         

Primary/None

(11)

(6)

(17)

(5)

(21)

Complete secondary

19

9

28

8

36

Professional primary/middle

21

6

27

3

30

Higher

12

3

15

4

19

Wealth index quintile

         

Poorest

27

8

35

2

37

Second

15

8

23

13

36

Middle

13

9

22

6

28

Fourth

20

2

22

4

26

Richest

8

7

15

3

18

Mother tongue of household head

       

Kyrgyz

16

7

22

6

28

Russian

(*)

(*)

(*)

(*)

(*)

Uzbek

19

9

28

(3)

(31)

Other language

(*)

(*)

(*)

(*)

(*)

1 MICS indicator 1.1 - Neonatal mortality rate

2 MICS indicator 1.3 - Post-neonatal mortality rate

3 MICS indicator 1.2; MDG indicator 4.2 - Infant mortality rate

4 MICS indicator 1.4 - Child mortality rate

5 MICS indicator 1.5; MDG indicator 4.1 - Under-five mortality rate

a Post-neonatal mortality rates are computed as the difference between the infant and neonatal mortality rates

(*) – Figures that are based on fewer than 250 unweighted person-years of exposure

( ) – Figures that are based on 250 – 499 unweighted person-years of exposure

Table CM.3: Early childhood mortality rates by demographic characteristics

Neonatal, post-neonatal, Infant, child and under-five mortality rates for the five year period preceding the survey, by demographic characteristics, Kyrgyzstan, 2014

 

Neonatal mortality rate1

Post-neonatal mortality rate2, a

Infant mortality rate3

Child mortality rate4

Under-five mortality rate5

           

Total

17

7

24

6

29

           

Sex of child

         

Male

17

8

25

5

30

Female

16

6

22

7

28

Mother's age at birth

         

Less than 20

(14)

(20)

(33)

(4)

(37)

20-34

17

6

23

6

28

35-49

(16)

(5)

(21)

(8)

(29)

Birth order

         

1

28

6

34

4

38

2-3

10

7

17

6

23

4-6

13

7

21

10

30

7+

(*)

(*)

(*)

(*)

(*)

Previous birth intervalb

         

< 2 years

23

8

31

3

34

2 years

10

9

19

(9)

(28)

3 years

(13)

(2)

(15)

(5)

(20)

4+ years

10

4

14

10

24

1 MICS indicator 1.1 - Neonatal mortality rate

2 MICS indicator 1.3 - Post-neonatal mortality rate

3 MICS indicator 1.2; MDG indicator 4.2 - Infant mortality rate

4 MICS indicator 1.4 - Child mortality rate

5 MICS indicator 1.5; MDG indicator 4.1 - Under-five mortality rate

a Post-neonatal mortality rates are computed as the difference between the infant and neonatal mortality rates

b Excludes first order births

(*) – Figures that are based on fewer than 250 unweighted person-years of exposure

( ) – Figures that are based on 250 – 499 unweighted person-years of exposure

Tables CM.2 and CM.3 provide estimates of child mortality by socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. There is some difference between the probabilities of dying among males and females; infant mortality in boys is higher than in girls standing at 25 and 22 per 1,000 live births, while the under-five mortality rate is 30 and 28, respectively.  Difference between urban and rural areas is more evident:  infant and under-5 mortality rates are much lower in urban areas (17 and 20, respectively) while the rates for rural children are about 1.6 times higher (27 and 33, respectively).   Figure CM.2 provides a graphical presentation of these differences. There are also differences in mortality in terms of educational levels, wealth, and mother tongue of household head.

Figure CM.2: Under-5 mortality rates by area and region, Kyrgyzstan, 2014

Figure CM.3 compares the findings of 2014 Kyrgyzstan MICS on under-5 mortality rates with those from other data sources; three surveys, 2012 DHS, 2006 MICS and 2014 MICS as well as the vital registration (VR) system statistics.  2014 Kyrgyzstan MICS findings are obtained from Table CM.1.  The 2014 MICS estimates indicate a decline in mortality during the last 15 years.  The most recent U5MR estimate (29 per thousand live births for 0-4 years preceeding the survey) from the 2014 MICS is very close to the average derived from the vital registration system for the same period, while the trend indicated by the survey results are in broad agreement with  vital registration data and those in the previous 2006 MICS survey.  The mortality data and trend depicted by the 2012 DHS is also a declining one coinciding very well with those indicated by 2014 MICS.  Further qualification of these apparent declines and differences as well as its determinants should be taken up in a more detailed and separate analysis.

Figure CM.3: Trend in under-5 mortality rates, Kyrgyzstan, 2014